Asset Value-Investor Value (AVIV) Ratio

Predictive Factor Breakdown

Measures the ratio between Bitcoin's active transactional liquidity and the capital committed by long-term investors.

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Asset Value-Investor Value (AVIV) Ratio

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-0.07
0.03

BTC 30 Day Forward Returns Analysis

BTC historically fallen by -0.67% in 30 days when Asset Value-Investor Value (AVIV) Ratio was between ▆ 0.2 and 0.4.
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Current Value
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▆ 0.01 , 0.2▆ 0.2 , 0.4▆ 0.4 , 0.6▆ 0.6 , 0.8▆ 0.8 , 1.0

2020-01-01

2025-02-26

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BTC Price with Asset Value-Investor Value (AVIV) Ratio

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UnravelAsset Value-Investor Value (AVIV) Ratio

Asset Value-Investor Value (AVIV) Ratio quantifies the equilibrium between Bitcoin’s active transactional liquidity and the cumulative capital committed by long-term investors. The AVIV Ratio evaluates the relationship between Active Capitalization (ActiveCap) — the aggregate value of BTC actively transacted within a defined period — and Investor Realized Capitalization (InvestorCap), a refined metric derived from Bitcoin’s Realized Cap, adjusted to exclude miner-issued supply. ActiveCap represents the "money in motion" within the Bitcoin network, capturing the velocity and magnitude of coins changing hands. InvestorCap isolates the true capital invested by holders, calculated by stripping out miner-distributed coins from the traditional Realized Cap (the sum of BTC’s value at their last on-chain movement). This adjustment eliminates distortions caused by mining rewards, offering a purer measure of investor commitment. By contrasting these metrics, the AVIV Ratio reveals whether Bitcoin’s market value is driven by speculative trading (high ActiveCap) or anchored by long-term investor conviction (high InvestorCap). A high ratio indicates an overheated market, where excessive transactional activity outpaces underlying investor equity—a historically reliable precursor to corrective phases. Conversely, a low ratio indicates undervaluation, as suppressed transactional liquidity relative to invested capital highlights potential accumulation opportunities and upward price inflection points. Institutional investors, risk managers, and macro strategists leverage the AVIV Ratio to identify regime shifts, validate contrarian entry/exit signals, and calibrate portfolios amid Bitcoin’s volatility.

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Scatter plot - Asset Value-Investor Value (AVIV) Ratio and BTC 30 and 90 Day Forward Returns

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