BTC Price with Asset Value-Investor Value (AVIV) Ratio
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UnravelAsset Value-Investor Value (AVIV) Ratio
Asset Value-Investor Value (AVIV) Ratio quantifies the equilibrium
between Bitcoin’s active transactional liquidity and the cumulative
capital committed by long-term investors. The AVIV Ratio evaluates
the relationship between Active Capitalization (ActiveCap) — the
aggregate value of BTC actively transacted within a defined period —
and Investor Realized Capitalization (InvestorCap), a refined metric
derived from Bitcoin’s Realized Cap, adjusted to exclude
miner-issued supply.
ActiveCap represents the "money in motion" within the
Bitcoin network, capturing the velocity and magnitude of coins
changing hands.
InvestorCap isolates the true capital invested by holders,
calculated by stripping out miner-distributed coins from the
traditional Realized Cap (the sum of BTC’s value at their last
on-chain movement). This adjustment eliminates distortions caused by
mining rewards, offering a purer measure of investor commitment.
By contrasting these metrics, the AVIV Ratio reveals whether
Bitcoin’s market value is driven by speculative trading (high
ActiveCap) or anchored by long-term investor conviction (high
InvestorCap).
A high ratio indicates an overheated market, where excessive
transactional activity outpaces underlying investor equity—a
historically reliable precursor to corrective phases. Conversely, a
low ratio indicates undervaluation, as suppressed transactional
liquidity relative to invested capital highlights potential
accumulation opportunities and upward price inflection points.
Institutional investors, risk managers, and macro strategists
leverage the AVIV Ratio to identify regime shifts, validate
contrarian entry/exit signals, and calibrate portfolios amid
Bitcoin’s volatility.
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Scatter plot - Asset Value-Investor Value (AVIV) Ratio and BTC 30 and 90 Day Forward Returns