Implied Volatility (3 Months)
options
61
Sell-Side Risk Ratio
on-chain-liquidity
10
Money Supply (Global M2)
macro
56
Implied Volatility (1 Month)
options
10
Instantenous Volatility Factor
technicals
56
Net Realized Profit/Loss
on-chain
10
Fast Momentum Factor
technicals
53
BTC Market Dominance
valuation
10
Puell Multiple
miners
52
Implied Volatility (1 Week)
options
10
Reddit Mentions
social
43
Asset Value-Investor Value (AVIV) Ratio
valuation
10
Exchange Outflow
exchanges
36
Short Term Realized Cap HODL Waves Index
on-chain
10
Instantenous Momentum Factor
technicals
33
Futures Premium (CME)
market-stats
10
High Yield Sensitivity
cross-asset
29
Reserve Risk
on-chain-liquidity
10
Fear & Greed Index
market-stats
28
Attention Index
social
10
Stablecoin Supply
stablecoin
26
MVRV
valuation
10
ETF Net Flow
market-stats
14
Hash Price
miners
10
Skew Factor
technicals
0
US Dollar / Bitcoin Ratio
cross-asset
10
Slow Momentum Factor
technicals
0
Unemployment - Initial Claims
macro
10
US Cloud Computing Sector
cross-asset
10
Equities Market Breadth
market-stats
10
US Bank Assets: Securities in Custody for Foreign and International Accounts
macro
10
Corporate Bond Sensitivity
cross-asset
10
Inflation Linked Bonds Sensitivity
cross-asset
10
Telegram Mentions
social
10
Stablecoin Supply Ratio
stablecoin
10
Exchange Balances
exchanges
10
Collateralization of Currency (US Dollar)
macro
10
Unemployment - Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment)
macro
10
Currency Component of M1
macro
10
Active Addresses
on-chain
10
Equities Sensitivity
cross-asset
10
Memecoin Index
cross-asset
10
Aggregate Sentiment
sentiment
10
Open Interest (Aggregate)
market-stats
10
New Users
on-chain
10
Whale Transactions Index
on-chain
10
Bitcoin / Gold Correlation
cross-asset
10
Development Effort
social
10
Stablecoin Transfer Volumes
stablecoin
10
Youtube Mentions
social
10
MSTR Premium
market-stats
10
Treasury and Agency Securities, Overall Level
macro
10
Funding Rates (Aggregate)
market-stats
10
Demand Deposits
macro
10
Gold Certificates
macro
10
Aggregate Futures Volume
market-stats
10
Coin Days Destroyed
on-chain
10
Retail Money Market Funds
macro
10
Hashrate
miners
10
Overall Level Bank Credit
macro
10
Telegram Sentiment
sentiment
10
Median Consumer Price Index
macro
10
Reddit Sentiment
sentiment
10
Asset Value-Investor Value (AVIV) Ratio quantifies the equilibrium between Bitcoin’s active transactional liquidity and the cumulative capital committed by long-term investors. The AVIV Ratio evaluates the relationship between Active Capitalization (ActiveCap) — the aggregate value of BTC actively transacted within a defined period — and Investor Realized Capitalization (InvestorCap), a refined metric derived from Bitcoin’s Realized Cap, adjusted to exclude miner-issued supply.
ActiveCap represents the "money in motion" within the Bitcoin network, capturing the velocity and magnitude of coins changing hands.
InvestorCap isolates the true capital invested by holders, calculated by stripping out miner-distributed coins from the traditional Realized Cap (the sum of BTC’s value at their last on-chain movement). This adjustment eliminates distortions caused by mining rewards, offering a purer measure of investor commitment.
By contrasting these metrics, the AVIV Ratio reveals whether Bitcoin’s market value is driven by speculative trading (high ActiveCap) or anchored by long-term investor conviction (high InvestorCap).
A high ratio indicates an overheated market, where excessive transactional activity outpaces underlying investor equity—a historically reliable precursor to corrective phases. Conversely, a low ratio indicates undervaluation, as suppressed transactional liquidity relative to invested capital highlights potential accumulation opportunities and upward price inflection points. Institutional investors, risk managers, and macro strategists leverage the AVIV Ratio to identify regime shifts, validate contrarian entry/exit signals, and calibrate portfolios amid Bitcoin’s volatility.
unravel
.markets
Loading...
unravel
.markets
Predictive Correlation measures the rolling Pearson correlation coefficient between Asset Value-Investor Value (AVIV) Ratio and 90 Day BTC forward returns. 1 Indicates a perfect positive correlation, -1 indicates a perfect negative correlation, and 0 indicates no correlation.
unravel
.markets
unravel
.markets
We group the factor's values into ranges, to make sure we can analyze its behaviour when it's at the extremes - or somewhere in the middle.
BTC’s 30-day return was highest (9.33%) when Asset Value-Investor Value (AVIV) Ratio was in the 0.4 - 0.6 range. The lowest returns (-0.67%) occurred when Asset Value-Investor Value (AVIV) Ratio was in the 0.2 - 0.4 range.
This graph shows the average cumulative BTC returns over subsequent 30 days when a factor was in a specific range.