Implied Volatility (3 Months)
options
61
Sell-Side Risk Ratio
on-chain-liquidity
10
Money Supply (Global M2)
macro
56
Implied Volatility (1 Month)
options
10
Instantenous Volatility Factor
technicals
56
Net Realized Profit/Loss
on-chain
10
Fast Momentum Factor
technicals
53
BTC Market Dominance
valuation
10
Puell Multiple
miners
52
Implied Volatility (1 Week)
options
10
Reddit Mentions
social
43
Asset Value-Investor Value (AVIV) Ratio
valuation
10
Exchange Outflow
exchanges
36
Short Term Realized Cap HODL Waves Index
on-chain
10
Instantenous Momentum Factor
technicals
33
Futures Premium (CME)
market-stats
10
High Yield Sensitivity
cross-asset
29
Reserve Risk
on-chain-liquidity
10
Fear & Greed Index
market-stats
28
Attention Index
social
10
Stablecoin Supply
stablecoin
26
MVRV
valuation
10
ETF Net Flow
market-stats
14
Hash Price
miners
10
Skew Factor
technicals
0
US Dollar / Bitcoin Ratio
cross-asset
10
Slow Momentum Factor
technicals
0
Unemployment - Initial Claims
macro
10
US Cloud Computing Sector
cross-asset
10
Equities Market Breadth
market-stats
10
US Bank Assets: Securities in Custody for Foreign and International Accounts
macro
10
Corporate Bond Sensitivity
cross-asset
10
Inflation Linked Bonds Sensitivity
cross-asset
10
Telegram Mentions
social
10
Stablecoin Supply Ratio
stablecoin
10
Exchange Balances
exchanges
10
Collateralization of Currency (US Dollar)
macro
10
Unemployment - Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment)
macro
10
Currency Component of M1
macro
10
Active Addresses
on-chain
10
Equities Sensitivity
cross-asset
10
Memecoin Index
cross-asset
10
Aggregate Sentiment
sentiment
10
Open Interest (Aggregate)
market-stats
10
New Users
on-chain
10
Whale Transactions Index
on-chain
10
Bitcoin / Gold Correlation
cross-asset
10
Development Effort
social
10
Stablecoin Transfer Volumes
stablecoin
10
Youtube Mentions
social
10
MSTR Premium
market-stats
10
Treasury and Agency Securities, Overall Level
macro
10
Funding Rates (Aggregate)
market-stats
10
Demand Deposits
macro
10
Gold Certificates
macro
10
Aggregate Futures Volume
market-stats
10
Coin Days Destroyed
on-chain
10
Retail Money Market Funds
macro
10
Hashrate
miners
10
Overall Level Bank Credit
macro
10
Telegram Sentiment
sentiment
10
Median Consumer Price Index
macro
10
Reddit Sentiment
sentiment
10
High-yield bonds, colloquially dubbed “junk bonds,” are debt instruments issued by companies with lower credit ratings, offering higher returns to compensate for risk - Bitcoin, often labeled a “risk-on” asset, shares this speculative DNA. Our analysis suggests that the same economic conditions that boost risk appetite in the bond market may also prime investors to allocate more capital to bitcoin in the future, creating an significant, exploitable lead-lag relationship.
The index we constructed to capture this dynamic clearly demonstrates that raising High Yield Bond prices (falling yields) often precede Bitcoin rallies - shown in the chart below.
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Predictive Correlation measures the rolling Pearson correlation coefficient between High Yield Sensitivity and 90 Day BTC forward returns. 1 Indicates a perfect positive correlation, -1 indicates a perfect negative correlation, and 0 indicates no correlation.
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We group the factor's values into ranges, to make sure we can analyze its behaviour when it's at the extremes - or somewhere in the middle.
BTC’s 30-day return was highest (8.05%) when High Yield Sensitivity was in the 0.6 - 0.8 range. The lowest returns (-1.63%) occurred when High Yield Sensitivity was in the 0.2 - 0.4 range.
This graph shows the average cumulative BTC returns over subsequent 30 days when a factor was in a specific range.
High Yield Bonds and Bitcoin both act as liquidity barometers. The link between Bitcoin and M2 Money Supply Growth (overall liquidity) is well-documented, other related predictive factor that we’ll examine in the upcoming days. As macroeconomic uncertainty looms, this link will face new tests.
The mechanisms that drive high-yield bond prices are multifaceted, influenced by corporate earnings, geopolitical events, and shifts in monetary policy. Bitcoin’s price dynamics are shaped by similar factors, as well as technology adoption, market liquidity, and even sentiment on social media.
As traditional finance and digital assets continue to converge, we’ll see many new predictive factors emerge - and others that stop working altogether, but we believe High Yield Bonds add an important lens to any analysis that tries to explain the past couple of years’ of Bitcoin returns.