Implied Volatility (3 Months)
options
61
Sell-Side Risk Ratio
on-chain-liquidity
10
Money Supply (Global M2)
macro
56
Implied Volatility (1 Month)
options
10
Instantenous Volatility Factor
technicals
56
Net Realized Profit/Loss
on-chain
10
Fast Momentum Factor
technicals
53
BTC Market Dominance
valuation
10
Puell Multiple
miners
52
Implied Volatility (1 Week)
options
10
Reddit Mentions
social
43
Asset Value-Investor Value (AVIV) Ratio
valuation
10
Exchange Outflow
exchanges
36
Short Term Realized Cap HODL Waves Index
on-chain
10
Instantenous Momentum Factor
technicals
33
Futures Premium (CME)
market-stats
10
High Yield Sensitivity
cross-asset
29
Reserve Risk
on-chain-liquidity
10
Fear & Greed Index
market-stats
28
Attention Index
social
10
Stablecoin Supply
stablecoin
26
MVRV
valuation
10
ETF Net Flow
market-stats
14
Hash Price
miners
10
Skew Factor
technicals
0
US Dollar / Bitcoin Ratio
cross-asset
10
Slow Momentum Factor
technicals
0
Unemployment - Initial Claims
macro
10
US Cloud Computing Sector
cross-asset
10
Equities Market Breadth
market-stats
10
US Bank Assets: Securities in Custody for Foreign and International Accounts
macro
10
Corporate Bond Sensitivity
cross-asset
10
Inflation Linked Bonds Sensitivity
cross-asset
10
Telegram Mentions
social
10
Stablecoin Supply Ratio
stablecoin
10
Exchange Balances
exchanges
10
Collateralization of Currency (US Dollar)
macro
10
Unemployment - Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment)
macro
10
Currency Component of M1
macro
10
Active Addresses
on-chain
10
Equities Sensitivity
cross-asset
10
Memecoin Index
cross-asset
10
Aggregate Sentiment
sentiment
10
Open Interest (Aggregate)
market-stats
10
New Users
on-chain
10
Whale Transactions Index
on-chain
10
Bitcoin / Gold Correlation
cross-asset
10
Development Effort
social
10
Stablecoin Transfer Volumes
stablecoin
10
Youtube Mentions
social
10
MSTR Premium
market-stats
10
Treasury and Agency Securities, Overall Level
macro
10
Funding Rates (Aggregate)
market-stats
10
Demand Deposits
macro
10
Gold Certificates
macro
10
Aggregate Futures Volume
market-stats
10
Coin Days Destroyed
on-chain
10
Retail Money Market Funds
macro
10
Hashrate
miners
10
Overall Level Bank Credit
macro
10
Telegram Sentiment
sentiment
10
Median Consumer Price Index
macro
10
Reddit Sentiment
sentiment
10
In the grand narrative of monetary evolution, the rise of Bitcoin can be seen as a reaction to the enduring challenges of fiat currency management. It’s somewhat ironic that one of its main drivers ended up being the main lever of the Central Banks.
M2 — cash, checking deposits, savings, money market funds and other instruments that can become spendable cash within days — acts as the bloodstream of the global economy. In short, it’s the liquidity that’s just a phone call—or a tap on an app—away from spending.
When central banks expand M2 (via rate cuts or quantitative easing), liquidity floods markets. Investors, drowning in cheap capital, chase yield like wolves scenting prey.
More money circulating means that, all else equal, the relative value of that money falls. Investors, naturally, are wired to seek preservation of wealth. Bitcoin’s fixed supply, combined with its global accessibility and increasing adoption, makes it a candidate for capturing some of that displaced value.
Recent studies have shown that changes in M2 can explain a significant portion of Bitcoin’s price variance. One simple power-law model suggests that as the U.S. M2 money supply grows—from, say, $21 trillion today to higher levels in the future—the implied “fair value” of Bitcoin moves upward accordingly. While we remain skeptical about studies done on price data, when we objectively quantify the predictive strength of M2 (by looking at correlations with forward returns) we came to similar conclusions.
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Predictive Correlation measures the rolling Pearson correlation coefficient between Money Supply (Global M2) and 90 Day BTC forward returns. 1 Indicates a perfect positive correlation, -1 indicates a perfect negative correlation, and 0 indicates no correlation.
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We group the factor's values into ranges, to make sure we can analyze its behaviour when it's at the extremes - or somewhere in the middle.
BTC’s 30-day return was highest (13.38%) when Money Supply (Global M2) was in the 0.8 - 1.0 range. The lowest returns (-4.38%) occurred when Money Supply (Global M2) was in the 0.2 - 0.4 range.
This graph shows the average cumulative BTC returns over subsequent 30 days when a factor was in a specific range.
So, what does this mean for you as an investor? First, if you’re tracking your portfolio and trying to gauge when to buy or sell Bitcoin, don’t ignore the traditional economic indicators. An expanding M2 money supply — especially when paired with central banks’ dovish monetary policies — often precedes bullish runs in Bitcoin. It’s a classic supply–demand story with a modern twist: more fiat money in the system tends to make a scarce asset like Bitcoin more desirable.
The Federal Reserve’s pandemic-era money printing offers a textbook case. Between February 2020 and 2022, the U.S. M2 supply grew from $15.4 trillion to $21.8 trillion – a 41% increase unmatched in peacetime history. This liquidity tsunami propelled Bitcoin from $8,000 to $69,000, with altcoins posting even more spectacular gains.
In our interconnected world, the old adage “cash is king” might be giving way to “liquidity is the kingmaker”, with Bitcoin poised to inherit the throne when the conditions are right.