Equities Sensitivity Index measures the asset's sensitivity to
movements of large cap equity indices. It's designed to
effectively capture the lead-lag relationship between the two
assets. The index is normalized using a wide range of lookback
windows in order to be easily modelable and interpretable.
Global equity returns, as a barometer of macroeconomic sentiment and
risk appetite, may shape Bitcoin’s price dynamics through liquidity
flows, investor behavior, and intermarket correlations.
In bullish equity environments, sustained equity outperformance may divert institutional
and retail capital away from cryptocurrencies, especially during
periods of low volatility that favor traditional risk assets.
In bearish equity regimes, Bitcoin’s role bifurcates: it may
initially correlate negatively during panic-driven sell-offs as
investors retreat to cash or bonds, but subsequently attract inflows
as a hedge against systemic risks, currency debasement, or central
bank policy missteps.
The relationship hinges on market narratives—Bitcoin increasingly
decouples from equities when perceived as a “digital gold”
alternative, yet mirrors risk-asset behavior when macro liquidity
tightens or recession fears dominate.
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Scatter plot - Equities Sensitivity and BTC 30 and 90 Day Forward Returns