Equities Sensitivity

Predictive Factor Breakdown

Measures the asset's sensitivity to global equity indices, captures the lead-lag relationship between the two assets.

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Equities Sensitivity

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-0.01
0.03

BTC 30 Day Forward Returns Analysis

BTC historically risen by 8.52% in 30 days when Equities Sensitivity was between ▆ 0.2 and 0.4.
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Current Value
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▆ 0.01 , 0.2▆ 0.2 , 0.4▆ 0.4 , 0.6▆ 0.6 , 0.8▆ 0.8 , 1.0

2020-01-01

2025-02-26

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BTC Price with Equities Sensitivity

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UnravelEquities Sensitivity

Equities Sensitivity Index measures the asset's sensitivity to movements of large cap equity indices. It's designed to effectively capture the lead-lag relationship between the two assets. The index is normalized using a wide range of lookback windows in order to be easily modelable and interpretable. Global equity returns, as a barometer of macroeconomic sentiment and risk appetite, may shape Bitcoin’s price dynamics through liquidity flows, investor behavior, and intermarket correlations. In bullish equity environments, sustained equity outperformance may divert institutional and retail capital away from cryptocurrencies, especially during periods of low volatility that favor traditional risk assets. In bearish equity regimes, Bitcoin’s role bifurcates: it may initially correlate negatively during panic-driven sell-offs as investors retreat to cash or bonds, but subsequently attract inflows as a hedge against systemic risks, currency debasement, or central bank policy missteps. The relationship hinges on market narratives—Bitcoin increasingly decouples from equities when perceived as a “digital gold” alternative, yet mirrors risk-asset behavior when macro liquidity tightens or recession fears dominate.

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Scatter plot - Equities Sensitivity and BTC 30 and 90 Day Forward Returns

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