Exchange Outflow

Predictive Factor Breakdown

Measures the flow of digital asset out of trading venues.

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-0.03
0.04

BTC 30 Day Forward Returns Analysis

BTC historically risen by 6.09% in 30 days when Exchange Outflow was between ▆ 0.6 and 0.8.
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Current Value
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▆ 0.0 , 0.2▆ 0.2 , 0.4▆ 0.4 , 0.6▆ 0.6 , 0.8▆ 0.8 , 1.0

2020-01-01

2025-02-26

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BTC Price with Exchange Outflow

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UnravelExchange Outflow

The index measures the flow of digital assets into trading venues by tracking the volume of transfers from external wallets to exchanges. Empirical analysis reveals that Exchange outflows directly reduce the liquid supply available for immediate trading. The act of transferring BTC to cold storage reflects a strategic shift from speculative trading to long-term holding—a behavioral marker of investor confidence. Under favorable macroeconomic conditions, this may catalyze scarcity-driven upward price elasticity, akin to a soft supply squeeze. The index is normalized using a wide range of lookback windows in order to be easily modelable and interpretable.

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Scatter plot - Exchange Outflow and BTC 30 and 90 Day Forward Returns

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