The index measures the flow of digital assets into trading venues by
tracking the volume of transfers from external wallets to exchanges.
Empirical analysis reveals that Exchange outflows directly reduce the liquid supply available for
immediate trading.
The act of transferring BTC to
cold storage reflects a strategic shift from speculative trading to
long-term holding—a behavioral marker of investor confidence.
Under favorable macroeconomic conditions, this may catalyze
scarcity-driven upward price elasticity, akin to a soft supply
squeeze.
The index is normalized using a wide range of lookback windows in
order to be easily modelable and interpretable.
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Scatter plot - Exchange Outflow and BTC 30 and 90 Day Forward Returns