Puell Multiple

Predictive Factor Breakdown

Measures mining profitability, providing insights into their impact on overall market selling pressure.

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0.15
0.13

BTC 30 Day Forward Returns Analysis

BTC historically risen by 2.38% in 30 days when Puell Multiple was between ▆ 0.2 and 0.4.
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Current Value
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▆ 0.01 , 0.2▆ 0.2 , 0.4▆ 0.4 , 0.6▆ 0.6 , 0.8▆ 0.8 , 1.0

2020-01-01

2025-02-26

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BTC Price with Puell Multiple

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UnravelPuell Multiple

Puell Multiple measures the ratio of the daily issuance value of Bitcoin to its 365-day moving average, providing insights into the market's perception of mining profitability dynamics and their cascading impact on market selling pressure. By comparing daily mining revenue (in USD) to its 365-day simple moving average, the Puell Multiple illuminates whether miner income is anomalously high or low relative to historical norms — a critical signal for anticipating shifts in miner behavior and broader market cycles. The index is normalized using a wide range of lookback windows in order to be easily modelable and interpretable. Pioneered by analyst David Puell, the metric emerged from the need to contextualize miner revenue sustainability. **High Multiple**: Indicates mining revenue significantly exceeds its annual average, suggesting miners are highly profitable. While this may reduce immediate sell pressure (as miners hold), extreme highs often precede market tops, as overvaluation risks mount. **Low Multiple**: Signals depressed revenue relative to historical norms, implying miner profitability stress. This frequently correlates with capitulation events, where miners sell reserves to cover costs, exacerbating downward price pressure—a potential contrarian buy signal.

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Scatter plot - Puell Multiple and BTC 30 and 90 Day Forward Returns

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