Puell Multiple measures the ratio of the daily issuance value of
Bitcoin to its 365-day moving average, providing insights into the
market's perception of mining profitability dynamics and their
cascading impact on market selling pressure.
By comparing daily mining revenue (in USD) to its 365-day simple
moving average, the Puell Multiple illuminates whether miner income
is anomalously high or low relative to historical norms — a critical
signal for anticipating shifts in miner behavior and broader market
cycles. The index is normalized using a wide range of lookback
windows in order to be easily modelable and interpretable.
Pioneered by analyst David Puell, the metric emerged from the need
to contextualize miner revenue sustainability.
**High Multiple**: Indicates mining revenue significantly exceeds
its annual average, suggesting miners are highly profitable. While
this may reduce immediate sell pressure (as miners hold), extreme
highs often precede market tops, as overvaluation risks mount.
**Low Multiple**: Signals depressed revenue relative to
historical norms, implying miner profitability stress. This
frequently correlates with capitulation events, where miners sell
reserves to cover costs, exacerbating downward price pressure—a
potential contrarian buy signal.
Interested in the latest data?
Be among the first to experience the cutting-edge, institutional-grade predictive analytics Unravel offers. Join our exclusive early access program below.
Unravel.Markets
unravel
.markets
Scatter plot - Puell Multiple and BTC 30 and 90 Day Forward Returns